LGI Homes (LGIH)
LGI Homes, Inc. designs, builds and sells homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.35% per annum.
- LGIH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $66.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.85% per annum.
- LGIH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LGIH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 9.2886
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.19%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2886 + -0.0028 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.9090)
= $135.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2886 + -0.0028 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.7086)
= $110.90
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2886 + -0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.3700)
= $79.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2886 + -0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.1696)
= $64.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.35% per annum.
- LGIH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $66.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 12.7353
b = -0.0047
s = 0.0293
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0047) – 1
= -81.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0293) – 1
= 12.45%
January 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7353 + -0.0047 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(4.6120)
= $100.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7353 + -0.0047 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(4.4946)
= $89.53
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7353 + -0.0047 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(4.2613)
= $70.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7353 + -0.0047 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(4.1439)
= $63.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.85% per annum.
- LGIH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.