Stock Price Trends

Skyline Corporation (SKY)

Skyline Champion Corporation is a factory-built housing company in North America. The company is headquartered in Troy, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.79% per annum.
  • SKY price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $86.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.47% per annum.
  • SKY price at the close of April 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SKY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 26, 2021
End date: August 6, 2024

a = 3.9524

b = 0.0002

s = 0.1322

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1322) – 1
= 69.72%

May 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + 0.0002 × 415 + 2 × 0.1322)
= Exp(4.3022)
= $73.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + 0.0002 × 415 – 2 × 0.1322)
= Exp(3.7732)
= $43.52

August 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + 0.0002 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.1322)
= Exp(4.5421)
= $93.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + 0.0002 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.1322)
= Exp(4.0131)
= $55.32

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.79% per annum.
  • SKY price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $86.25 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 3.4785

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0971

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0971) – 1
= 47.49%

April 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y504)
= Exp(a + b × X504 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4785 + 0.0006 × 729 + 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(4.1100)
= $60.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y504)
= Exp(a + b × X504 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4785 + 0.0006 × 729 – 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(3.7214)
= $41.32

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4785 + 0.0006 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(4.7655)
= $117.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4785 + 0.0006 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(4.3769)
= $79.59

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.47% per annum.
  • SKY price at the close of April 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.