Taylor Morn Home (TMHC)
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, is a public housing builder in the United States. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.10% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $73.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.41% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2022
End date: December 2, 2024
a = 2.0951
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0915
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0915) – 1
= 44.19%
June 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y633)
= Exp(a + b × X633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0951 + 0.0012 × 918 + 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(3.3980)
= $29.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y633)
= Exp(a + b × X633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0951 + 0.0012 × 918 – 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(3.0321)
= $20.74
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0951 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(4.5058)
= $90.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0951 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(4.1399)
= $62.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.10% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $73.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 18, 2023
End date: December 2, 2024
a = 2.5855
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0746
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0746) – 1
= 34.75%
April 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5855 + 0.0009 × 1,232 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(3.8561)
= $47.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5855 + 0.0009 × 1,232 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(3.5578)
= $35.09
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5855 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(4.3968)
= $81.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5855 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(4.0986)
= $60.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.41% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.