PulteGroup Inc (PHM)
PulteGroup, Inc. (previously known as Pulte Homes) is a home construction company based in Atlanta, Georgia, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.41% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $128.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.88 (2.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.57% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PHM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 2.0470
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0859
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 82.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0859) – 1
= 40.99%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0470 + 0.0016 × 932 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(3.7536)
= $42.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0470 + 0.0016 × 932 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(3.4101)
= $30.27
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0470 + 0.0016 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(5.1879)
= $179.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0470 + 0.0016 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.8444)
= $127.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.41% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $128.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.88 (2.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.1563
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0495
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0495) – 1
= 21.91%
December 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0010 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.6905)
= $108.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0010 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.4924)
= $89.34
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(5.0296)
= $152.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.8315)
= $125.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.57% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.