Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)
Toll Brothers, Inc. designs, builds, markets, sells and manages the financing of a variety of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.60% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $151.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.93% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.0267
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0718
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0718) – 1
= 33.25%
August 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0267 + 0.0017 × 1,005 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.8582)
= $47.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0267 + 0.0017 × 1,005 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.5711)
= $35.55
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0267 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(5.2371)
= $188.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0267 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(4.9500)
= $141.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.60% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $151.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.9285
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 1.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.37%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9285 + 0.0001 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(5.0607)
= $157.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9285 + 0.0001 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.9803)
= $145.52
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9285 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(5.0642)
= $158.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9285 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.9838)
= $146.04
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.93% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.