Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a home construction and land development company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.85% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $68.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.01% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRBK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 23, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 1.7069
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 71.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1464) – 1
= 79.59%
March 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y587)
= Exp(a + b × X587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 853 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7069 + 0.0015 × 853 + 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(3.2651)
= $26.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y587)
= Exp(a + b × X587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 853 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7069 + 0.0015 × 853 – 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(2.6796)
= $14.58
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7069 + 0.0015 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(4.6773)
= $107.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7069 + 0.0015 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(4.0918)
= $59.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.85% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $68.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.2597
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.86%
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2597 + -0.0033 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.5041)
= $90.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2597 + -0.0033 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.3743)
= $79.38
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2597 + -0.0033 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.2995)
= $73.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2597 + -0.0033 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.1697)
= $64.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.01% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.