Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a home construction and land development company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.54% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $59.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.33% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRBK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 7.2312
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0643
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0643) – 1
= 29.32%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2312 + -0.0018 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(4.5298)
= $92.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2312 + -0.0018 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(4.2727)
= $71.71
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2312 + -0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(4.1339)
= $62.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2312 + -0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.8767)
= $48.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.54% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $59.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.4237
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.86%
December 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4237 + 0.0004 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.1154)
= $61.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4237 + 0.0004 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(3.9944)
= $54.29
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4237 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.1539)
= $63.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4237 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.0330)
= $56.43
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.33% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.