Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Installed Building Products, Inc. is engaged in the installation of insulation, waterproofing, fire protection, fire protection, garage doors, rain gutters, window blinds, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors and other products in the Continental United States. The company is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.02% per annum.
- IBP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $208.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.81 (5.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.85% per annum.
- IBP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IBP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: October 22, 2024
a = 2.7333
b = 0.0016
s = 0.1234
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1234) – 1
= 63.84%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7333 + 0.0016 × 1,009 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(4.5900)
= $98.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7333 + 0.0016 × 1,009 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(4.0962)
= $60.11
October 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7333 + 0.0016 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(5.8472)
= $346.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7333 + 0.0016 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(5.3534)
= $211.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.02% per annum.
- IBP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $208.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.81 (5.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.8057
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0760
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0760) – 1
= 35.52%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8057 + -0.0002 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(5.6096)
= $273.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8057 + -0.0002 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(5.3056)
= $201.47
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8057 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(5.5486)
= $256.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8057 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(5.2447)
= $189.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.85% per annum.
- IBP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.