Stock Price Trends

M/I Homes Inc (MHO)

M / I Homes, Inc., is a builder of single-family homes in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Florida and Texas, United States. The company is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.04% per annum.
  • MHO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $154.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.67% per annum.
  • MHO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MHO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024

a = 1.9384

b = 0.0018

s = 0.1135

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1135) – 1
= 57.45%

June 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9384 + 0.0018 × 932 + 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(3.8448)
= $46.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9384 + 0.0018 × 932 – 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(3.3909)
= $29.69

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9384 + 0.0018 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(5.4395)
= $230.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9384 + 0.0018 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(4.9856)
= $146.30

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.04% per annum.
  • MHO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $154.61 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 16, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.2389

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0834

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0834) – 1
= 39.61%

November 16, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2389 + 0.0010 × 1,456 + 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(4.8789)
= $131.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2389 + 0.0010 × 1,456 – 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(4.5453)
= $94.19

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2389 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(5.2533)
= $191.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2389 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(4.9196)
= $136.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.67% per annum.
  • MHO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.