Meritage Corporation (MTH)
Meritage Homes Corporation designs and builds single-family homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.56% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $178.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.71% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 3.2736
b = 0.0011
s = 0.1012
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1012) – 1
= 49.92%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2736 + 0.0011 × 861 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(4.4570)
= $86.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2736 + 0.0011 × 861 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(4.0520)
= $57.52
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2736 + 0.0011 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(5.5461)
= $256.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2736 + 0.0011 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(5.1412)
= $170.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.56% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $178.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 9.3728
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0256
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.80%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3728 + -0.0023 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.3913)
= $219.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3728 + -0.0023 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.2888)
= $198.10
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3728 + -0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.2353)
= $187.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3728 + -0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.1328)
= $169.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.71% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.