KB Home (KBH)
KB Home is a home construction company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.19% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $77.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.76% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KBH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 1.9252
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.67%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9252 + 0.0014 × 935 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.4089)
= $30.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9252 + 0.0014 × 935 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.0748)
= $21.65
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9252 + 0.0014 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.6523)
= $104.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9252 + 0.0014 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.3182)
= $75.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.19% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $77.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 7.3162
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0248
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0248) – 1
= 10.43%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3162 + -0.0016 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(4.5069)
= $90.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3162 + -0.0016 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(4.4077)
= $82.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3162 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(4.3964)
= $81.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3162 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(4.2971)
= $73.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.76% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.