Lennar Corporation (LEN)
Lennar Corporation is a home construction and real estate company based in Fontainebleau, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.23% per annum.
- LEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $168.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.00 (0.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.01% per annum.
- LEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 6, 2022
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 3.2653
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0714
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0714) – 1
= 33.05%
April 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y597)
= Exp(a + b × X597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2653 + 0.0011 × 867 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.3590)
= $78.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y597)
= Exp(a + b × X597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2653 + 0.0011 × 867 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.0735)
= $58.76
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2653 + 0.0011 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(5.3857)
= $218.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2653 + 0.0011 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(5.1001)
= $164.04
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.23% per annum.
- LEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $168.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.00 (0.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 8.4912
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -49.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.53%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4912 + -0.0018 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.2877)
= $197.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4912 + -0.0018 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.2058)
= $182.33
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4912 + -0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.1622)
= $174.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4912 + -0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.0803)
= $160.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.01% per annum.
- LEN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.