NVR Inc (NVR)
NVR, Inc. is a company engaged in home construction. It also operates a mortgage banking and title services business. The company primarily operates on the East Coast of the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.09% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $9,000.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.99% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 7.3660
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0563
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0563) – 1
= 25.25%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3660 + 0.0010 × 932 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(8.3935)
= $4,418.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3660 + 0.0010 × 932 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(8.1684)
= $3,527.59
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3660 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(9.2711)
= $10,626.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3660 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(9.0460)
= $8,484.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.09% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $9,000.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 11.6646
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.22%
September 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6646 + -0.0014 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(9.2262)
= $10,159.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6646 + -0.0014 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(9.1564)
= $9,475.26
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6646 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(9.1450)
= $9,367.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6646 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(9.0753)
= $8,736.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.99% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.