Stock Price Trends

Victoria's Secret & Co (VSCO)

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Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 499.79% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $36.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,499.13% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 21, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -2.4576

b = 0.0049

s = 0.0768

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0049) – 1
= 499.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0768) – 1
= 35.97%

June 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4576 + 0.0049 × 1,066 + 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(2.9280)
= $18.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4576 + 0.0049 × 1,066 – 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(2.6207)
= $13.75

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4576 + 0.0049 × 1,217 + 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(3.6691)
= $39.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4576 + 0.0049 × 1,217 – 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(3.3618)
= $28.84

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 499.79% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $36.25 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -8.3226

b = 0.0098

s = 0.0288

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0098) – 1
= 3,499.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0288) – 1
= 12.21%

October 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y806)
= Exp(a + b × X806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3226 + 0.0098 × 1,170 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.2212)
= $25.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y806)
= Exp(a + b × X806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3226 + 0.0098 × 1,170 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.1059)
= $22.33

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3226 + 0.0098 × 1,217 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.6826)
= $39.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3226 + 0.0098 × 1,217 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.5673)
= $35.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,499.13% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.