Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN)
Urban Outfitters, Inc. is engaged in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.24% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $36.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.93 (19.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.09% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of URBN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: August 1, 2024
a = 2.0563
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0662) – 1
= 30.32%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0563 + 0.0010 × 897 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(3.1227)
= $22.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0563 + 0.0010 × 897 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(2.8578)
= $17.42
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0563 + 0.0010 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(3.9745)
= $53.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0563 + 0.0010 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(3.7096)
= $40.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.24% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $36.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.93 (19.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.5608
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0656
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0656) – 1
= 29.98%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5608 + -0.0005 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(3.9043)
= $49.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5608 + -0.0005 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(3.6421)
= $38.17
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5608 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(3.7544)
= $42.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5608 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(3.4922)
= $32.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.09% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.