American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO)
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. is a specialty retailer offering clothing, accessories, and personal care products under the American Eagle and Aerie brand names. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.48% per annum.
- AEO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $17.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.51 (8.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.35% per annum.
- AEO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 31, 2022
End date: October 21, 2024
a = 1.4311
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1348
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1348) – 1
= 71.49%
May 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 922 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4311 + 0.0010 × 922 + 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(2.5951)
= $13.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 922 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4311 + 0.0010 × 922 – 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(2.0558)
= $7.81
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4311 + 0.0010 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(3.4430)
= $31.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4311 + 0.0010 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(2.9036)
= $18.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.48% per annum.
- AEO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $17.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.51 (8.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.4791
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0544
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0544) – 1
= 24.30%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4791 + -0.0008 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.2857)
= $26.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4791 + -0.0008 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.0682)
= $21.50
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4791 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.0578)
= $21.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4791 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(2.8403)
= $17.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.35% per annum.
- AEO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.