Stock Price Trends

Buckle Inc (BKE)

The Buckle, Inc. is a retailer of casual clothing, footwear and accessories for young men and women in the United States. The company is headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.83% per annum.
  • BKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $47.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.98 (2.12%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.03% per annum.
  • BKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 3.3316

b = 0.0001

s = 0.1330

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1330) – 1
= 70.26%

January 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3316 + 0.0001 × 412 + 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(3.6509)
= $38.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3316 + 0.0001 × 412 – 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(3.1188)
= $22.62

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3316 + 0.0001 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(3.8186)
= $45.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3316 + 0.0001 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.1330)
= Exp(3.2864)
= $26.75

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.83% per annum.
  • BKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $47.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.98 (2.12%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 17, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.5408

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0655

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0655) – 1
= 29.94%

March 17, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5408 + 0.0007 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.4923)
= $32.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5408 + 0.0007 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.2304)
= $25.29

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5408 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.9079)
= $49.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5408 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.6460)
= $38.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.03% per annum.
  • BKE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.