Stock Price Trends

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

The TJX Companies, Inc. (abbreviated TJX) is an American multinational off-price department store corporation, headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.92% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $119.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.99% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 7, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.3952

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0491

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.69%

March 7, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3952 + 0.0008 × 837 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.1287)
= $62.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3952 + 0.0008 × 837 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.9324)
= $51.03

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3952 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.8794)
= $131.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3952 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.6831)
= $108.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.92% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $119.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.5245

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0410

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.99%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0410) – 1
= 17.80%

October 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5245 + 0.0007 × 1,071 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.3306)
= $75.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5245 + 0.0007 × 1,071 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.1668)
= $64.51

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5245 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.8411)
= $126.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5245 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.6773)
= $107.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.99% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.