Stock Price Trends

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

The TJX Companies, Inc. (abbreviated TJX) is an American multinational off-price department store corporation, headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.75% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $121.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 3.4966

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0477

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0477) – 1
= 21.00%

March 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 702 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.1222)
= $61.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 702 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(3.9316)
= $50.99

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.9508)
= $141.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.7602)
= $116.77

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.75% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $121.80 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 25, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.4996

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0225

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0225) – 1
= 9.41%

November 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.8741)
= $130.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.7842)
= $119.60

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.8244)
= $124.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.7345)
= $113.80

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.