The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
The TJX Companies, Inc. (abbreviated TJX) is an American multinational off-price department store corporation, headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.75% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $121.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 3.4966
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0477
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0477) – 1
= 21.00%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 702 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.1222)
= $61.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 702 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(3.9316)
= $50.99
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.9508)
= $141.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4966 + 0.0008 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.7602)
= $116.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.75% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $121.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.4996
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0225
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0225) – 1
= 9.41%
November 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.8741)
= $130.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.7842)
= $119.60
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.8244)
= $124.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4996 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.7345)
= $113.80
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.