Stock Price Trends

Foot Locker Inc (FL)

Foot Locker, Inc., is a sports shoe and apparel retailer. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.49% per annum.
  • FL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $25.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.95 (124.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.13% per annum.
  • FL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 11, 2021
End date: August 18, 2022

a = 4.6376

b = -0.0014

s = 0.1453

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1453) – 1
= 78.84%

January 11, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6376 + -0.0014 × 405 + 2 × 0.1453)
= Exp(4.3709)
= $79.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6376 + -0.0014 × 405 – 2 × 0.1453)
= Exp(3.7896)
= $44.24

August 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 989 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6376 + -0.0014 × 989 + 2 × 0.1453)
= Exp(3.5673)
= $35.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 989 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6376 + -0.0014 × 989 – 2 × 0.1453)
= Exp(2.9859)
= $19.81

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.49% per annum.
  • FL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $25.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.95 (124.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 11, 2021
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 4.0874

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1996

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -18.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1996) – 1
= 122.24%

January 11, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0874 + -0.0005 × 405 + 2 × 0.1996)
= Exp(4.2646)
= $71.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0874 + -0.0005 × 405 – 2 × 0.1996)
= Exp(3.4660)
= $32.01

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0874 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1996)
= Exp(3.4856)
= $32.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0874 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1996)
= Exp(2.6871)
= $14.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.13% per annum.
  • FL price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.