Caleres Inc (CAL)
Caleres, Inc. is engaged in the retail and wholesale of footwear in the United States, China, Canada, China, and Guam. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.93% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $29.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.15% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.70 (16.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2021
End date: November 20, 2023
a = 3.0644
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1011
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1011) – 1
= 49.82%
March 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0644 + 0.0001 × 484 + 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(3.3177)
= $27.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0644 + 0.0001 × 484 – 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(2.9134)
= $18.42
November 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0644 + 0.0001 × 1,460 + 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(3.4207)
= $30.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0644 + 0.0001 × 1,460 – 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(3.0164)
= $20.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.93% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $29.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 28, 2022
End date: September 11, 2024
a = 1.8867
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0913
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0913) – 1
= 44.05%
November 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y759)
= Exp(a + b × X759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8867 + 0.0010 × 1,103 + 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(3.1951)
= $24.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y759)
= Exp(a + b × X759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8867 + 0.0010 × 1,103 – 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(2.8301)
= $16.95
September 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8867 + 0.0010 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(3.8617)
= $47.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8867 + 0.0010 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(3.4967)
= $33.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.15% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.70 (16.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.