Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL)
Shoe Carnival, Inc., is a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.39% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $21.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.38% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 9.8780
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0618
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0618) – 1
= 28.03%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8780 + -0.0037 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(3.9219)
= $50.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8780 + -0.0037 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(3.6748)
= $39.44
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8780 + -0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(3.1904)
= $24.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8780 + -0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(2.9433)
= $18.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.39% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $21.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 12.6129
b = -0.0053
s = 0.0471
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0471) – 1
= 20.72%
December 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6129 + -0.0053 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(3.6764)
= $39.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6129 + -0.0053 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(3.4881)
= $32.72
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6129 + -0.0053 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(3.0916)
= $22.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6129 + -0.0053 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(2.9032)
= $18.23
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.38% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.