Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF)
Abercrombie & Fitch Co., is a specialty retailer. The company is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 253.36% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $136.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.06 (22.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.67% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 30, 2022
End date: August 27, 2024
a = -0.7900
b = 0.0035
s = 0.1777
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 253.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1777) – 1
= 103.55%
June 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7900 + 0.0035 × 952 + 2 × 0.1777)
= Exp(2.8578)
= $17.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7900 + 0.0035 × 952 – 2 × 0.1777)
= Exp(2.1471)
= $8.56
August 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7900 + 0.0035 × 1,741 + 2 × 0.1777)
= Exp(5.5865)
= $266.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7900 + 0.0035 × 1,741 – 2 × 0.1777)
= Exp(4.8758)
= $131.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 253.36% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $136.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.06 (22.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 7.8539
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0733
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0733) – 1
= 34.06%
May 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8539 + -0.0016 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(5.3232)
= $205.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8539 + -0.0016 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(5.0301)
= $152.95
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8539 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(5.0394)
= $154.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8539 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(4.7463)
= $115.16
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.67% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.