The Gap, Inc. (GAP)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 176.65% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $20.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.83 (29.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GAP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 17, 2024
a = -1.3996
b = 0.0028
s = 0.1542
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 176.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1542) – 1
= 85.29%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3996 + 0.0028 × 1,205 + 2 × 0.1542)
= Exp(2.2682)
= $9.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3996 + 0.0028 × 1,205 – 2 × 0.1542)
= Exp(1.6514)
= $5.21
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3996 + 0.0028 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.1542)
= Exp(3.6481)
= $38.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3996 + 0.0028 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.1542)
= Exp(3.0314)
= $20.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 176.65% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $20.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.83 (29.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.5991
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0919
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0919) – 1
= 44.42%
November 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5991 + 0.0003 × 1,460 + 2 × 0.0919)
= Exp(3.2002)
= $24.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5991 + 0.0003 × 1,460 – 2 × 0.0919)
= Exp(2.8327)
= $16.99
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5991 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0919)
= Exp(3.3049)
= $27.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5991 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0919)
= Exp(2.9373)
= $18.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.