Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)
Burlington Stores, Inc. is a branded apparel retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.47% per annum.
- BURL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $269.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.91% per annum.
- BURL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BURL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 24, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.6644
b = 0.0016
s = 0.1082
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 82.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1082) – 1
= 54.14%
August 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6644 + 0.0016 × 1,372 + 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(5.1414)
= $170.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6644 + 0.0016 × 1,372 – 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(4.7087)
= $110.91
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6644 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(5.8895)
= $361.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6644 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(5.4568)
= $234.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.47% per annum.
- BURL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $269.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.5334
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.04%
August 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5334 + -0.0005 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(5.6595)
= $287.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5334 + -0.0005 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(5.5370)
= $253.90
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5334 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(5.6071)
= $272.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5334 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(5.4845)
= $240.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.91% per annum.
- BURL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.