Guess? Inc. (GES)
Guess? The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.44% per annum.
- GES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $16.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.35% per annum.
- GES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.1645
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0540
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0540) – 1
= 24.11%
March 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1645 + -0.0018 × 1,582 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(3.4013)
= $30.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1645 + -0.0018 × 1,582 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(3.1852)
= $24.17
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1645 + -0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(2.9584)
= $19.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1645 + -0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(2.7424)
= $15.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.44% per annum.
- GES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $16.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 9.8039
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0238
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0238) – 1
= 9.99%
September 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8039 + -0.0038 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(3.0562)
= $21.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8039 + -0.0038 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(2.9610)
= $19.32
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8039 + -0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(2.8452)
= $17.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8039 + -0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(2.7500)
= $15.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.35% per annum.
- GES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.