Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)
Valmont Industries, Inc. produces and sells metal products manufactured in the United States, Australia, Denmark, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
- VMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $339.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.32% per annum.
- VMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VMI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: October 10, 2024
a = 5.4375
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1254
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1254) – 1
= 65.11%
February 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4375 + 0.0001 × 446 + 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(5.7233)
= $305.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4375 + 0.0001 × 446 – 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(5.2218)
= $185.27
October 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4375 + 0.0001 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(5.8284)
= $339.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4375 + 0.0001 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(5.3269)
= $205.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
- VMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $339.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.7375
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0507
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0507) – 1
= 22.47%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7375 + 0.0017 × 1,555 + 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(5.4441)
= $231.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7375 + 0.0017 × 1,555 – 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(5.2414)
= $188.93
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7375 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(5.8981)
= $364.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7375 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(5.6954)
= $297.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.32% per annum.
- VMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.