Timken Company (TKR)
The Timken Company designs, manufactures and manages engineered bearings and power transmission products and services globally. The company is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.58% per annum.
- TKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $73.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.05 (58.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.50% per annum.
- TKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TKR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: October 17, 2022
a = 4.5277
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0789
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0789) – 1
= 37.10%
November 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5277 + -0.0005 × 355 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(4.5208)
= $91.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5277 + -0.0005 × 355 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(4.2052)
= $67.03
October 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5277 + -0.0005 × 1,062 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(4.1928)
= $66.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5277 + -0.0005 × 1,062 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(3.8772)
= $48.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.58% per annum.
- TKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $73.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.05 (58.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2021
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 3.8745
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0934
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0934) – 1
= 45.29%
September 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y450)
= Exp(a + b × X450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8745 + 0.0003 × 653 + 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(4.2720)
= $71.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y450)
= Exp(a + b × X450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8745 + 0.0003 × 653 – 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(3.8984)
= $49.32
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8745 + 0.0003 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(4.6479)
= $104.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8745 + 0.0003 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0934)
= Exp(4.2743)
= $71.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.50% per annum.
- TKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.