Graco Inc (GGG)
Graco Inc. designs, manufactures and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, control, dispense and spray fluids and powders worldwide. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.44% per annum.
- GGG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $87.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.96 (20.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.41% per annum.
- GGG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.08 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GGG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 8, 2020
End date: April 26, 2023
a = 4.2659
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0731
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0731) – 1
= 33.95%
October 8, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y222)
= Exp(a + b × X222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2659 + -0.0001 × 323 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.3902)
= $80.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y222)
= Exp(a + b × X222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2659 + -0.0001 × 323 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.0979)
= $60.21
April 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2659 + -0.0001 × 1,253 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.3273)
= $75.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2659 + -0.0001 × 1,253 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.0350)
= $56.55
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.44% per annum.
- GGG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $87.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.96 (20.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2022
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 3.5583
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0559
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.04%
April 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5583 + 0.0006 × 870 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(4.1713)
= $64.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5583 + 0.0006 × 870 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.9479)
= $51.83
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5583 + 0.0006 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(4.6024)
= $99.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5583 + 0.0006 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(4.3789)
= $79.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.41% per annum.
- GGG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.08 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.