Fortive Corp (FTV)
Fortive is an American diversified industrial technology conglomerate company headquartered in Everett, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.06% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $74.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.15 (4.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.13% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.58 (11.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: May 22, 2024
a = 3.6806
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.20%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6806 + 0.0004 × 835 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.1572)
= $63.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6806 + 0.0004 × 835 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(3.9245)
= $50.63
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6806 + 0.0004 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.5068)
= $90.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6806 + 0.0004 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.2741)
= $71.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.06% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $74.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.15 (4.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2024
End date: August 22, 2024
a = 6.1538
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.42%
February 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1538 + -0.0011 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.5254)
= $92.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1538 + -0.0011 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.3995)
= $81.41
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1538 + -0.0011 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.3016)
= $73.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1538 + -0.0011 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.1757)
= $65.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.13% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.58 (11.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.