Stock Price Trends

Xylem Inc (XYL)

Xylem Inc. is a large American water technology provider, in public utility, residential, commercial, agricultural and industrial settings.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.04% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $116.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.03% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.63 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XYL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2024
End date: February 3, 2025

a = 5.9042

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0302

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -21.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.83%

May 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9042 + -0.0006 × 1,466 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.0157)
= $150.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9042 + -0.0006 × 1,466 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.8951)
= $133.63

February 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9042 + -0.0006 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.8365)
= $126.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9042 + -0.0006 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.7158)
= $111.70

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.04% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $116.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 6, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025

a = 10.2188

b = -0.0030

s = 0.0332

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -67.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0332) – 1
= 14.19%

February 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2188 + -0.0030 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.9774)
= $145.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2188 + -0.0030 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.8447)
= $127.07

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2188 + -0.0030 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.7494)
= $115.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2188 + -0.0030 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.6167)
= $101.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.03% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.63 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.