Stock Price Trends

Xylem Inc (XYL)

Xylem Inc. is a large American water technology provider, in public utility, residential, commercial, agricultural and industrial settings.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.86% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $122.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 438.51% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XYL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 6.0138

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0299

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.71%

May 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0138 + -0.0007 × 1,560 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.0193)
= $151.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0138 + -0.0007 × 1,560 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.8997)
= $134.25

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0138 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.8395)
= $126.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0138 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.7199)
= $112.16

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.86% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $122.18 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 10, 2025
End date: January 27, 2025

a = -3.6044

b = 0.0046

s = 0.0097

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0046) – 1
= 438.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0097) – 1
= 3.96%

January 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6044 + 0.0046 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.7594)
= $116.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6044 + 0.0046 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.7206)
= $112.23

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6044 + 0.0046 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.8378)
= $126.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6044 + 0.0046 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.7990)
= $121.39

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 438.51% per annum.
  • XYL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.