Stock Price Trends

Crane Company (CR)

Crane Co. manufactures and sells industrial engineering products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.11% per annum.
  • CR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $178.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.05 (4.11%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,574.28% per annum.
  • CR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.82 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024

a = 4.6381

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0298

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0298) – 1
= 12.66%

March 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 344 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6381 + 0.0007 × 344 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(4.9530)
= $141.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 344 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6381 + 0.0007 × 344 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(4.8337)
= $125.68

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y403)
= Exp(a + b × X403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6381 + 0.0007 × 586 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(5.1325)
= $169.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y403)
= Exp(a + b × X403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6381 + 0.0007 × 586 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(5.0133)
= $150.40

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.11% per annum.
  • CR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $178.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.05 (4.11%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 22, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024

a = -0.1641

b = 0.0090

s = 0.0209

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0090) – 1
= 2,574.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0209) – 1
= 8.71%

October 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1641 + 0.0090 × 573 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.0366)
= $153.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1641 + 0.0090 × 573 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(4.9531)
= $141.61

November 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y410)
= Exp(a + b × X410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1641 + 0.0090 × 595 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.2347)
= $187.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y410)
= Exp(a + b × X410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1641 + 0.0090 × 595 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.1512)
= $172.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,574.28% per annum.
  • CR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.82 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.