Stock Price Trends

Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc (LECO)

Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells welding, cutting and brazing products worldwide. The company is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.02% per annum.
  • LECO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $203.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.13 (3.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.93% per annum.
  • LECO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 7.3782

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0689

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0689) – 1
= 31.72%

January 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3782 + -0.0012 × 1,524 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.6509)
= $284.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3782 + -0.0012 × 1,524 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.3754)
= $216.03

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3782 + -0.0012 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.3230)
= $204.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3782 + -0.0012 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.0474)
= $155.62

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.02% per annum.
  • LECO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $203.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.13 (3.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024

a = 0.7580

b = 0.0025

s = 0.0239

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 150.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.01%

September 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7580 + 0.0025 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.2167)
= $184.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7580 + 0.0025 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.1213)
= $167.55

November 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7580 + 0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.4057)
= $222.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7580 + 0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.3103)
= $202.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.93% per annum.
  • LECO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.