Stock Price Trends

Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR)

Ingersoll Rand Inc., founded in 1859, is an American worldwide provider of industrial equipment, technologies and related parts and services to a broad and diverse customer base through a family of brands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $84.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.21 (7.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.37% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: May 9, 2025

a = 6.9879

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0541

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0541) – 1
= 24.17%

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9879 + -0.0015 × 1,542 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(4.7796)
= $119.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9879 + -0.0015 × 1,542 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(4.5632)
= $95.89

May 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9879 + -0.0015 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(4.4311)
= $84.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9879 + -0.0015 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(4.2147)
= $67.67

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $84.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.21 (7.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: June 12, 2025

a = -0.6729

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0302

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.82%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6729 + 0.0028 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.3133)
= $74.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6729 + 0.0028 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.1927)
= $66.20

June 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6729 + 0.0028 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.5117)
= $91.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6729 + 0.0028 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.3911)
= $80.73

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.37% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.