Stock Price Trends

Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR)

Ingersoll Rand Inc., founded in 1859, is an American worldwide provider of industrial equipment, technologies and related parts and services to a broad and diverse customer base through a family of brands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.64% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $103.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.36% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.8730

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0622

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0622) – 1
= 28.27%

April 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 887 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8730 + 0.0010 × 887 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(3.8605)
= $47.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 887 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8730 + 0.0010 × 887 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(3.6116)
= $37.02

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8730 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(4.7742)
= $118.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8730 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(4.5252)
= $92.32

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.64% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $103.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.9995

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0379

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.36%

February 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,546 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9995 + 0.0003 × 1,546 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.5688)
= $96.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,546 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9995 + 0.0003 × 1,546 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.4173)
= $82.87

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9995 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.6582)
= $105.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9995 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.5066)
= $90.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.36% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.