Stock Price Trends

Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR)

Ingersoll Rand Inc., founded in 1859, is an American worldwide provider of industrial equipment, technologies and related parts and services to a broad and diverse customer base through a family of brands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 49.71% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $81.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.54% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 7.8173

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0305

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0305) – 1
= 13.00%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8173 + -0.0019 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(4.7186)
= $112.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8173 + -0.0019 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(4.5964)
= $99.13

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8173 + -0.0019 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(4.4418)
= $84.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8173 + -0.0019 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(4.3196)
= $75.16

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 49.71% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $81.70 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 8.8914

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0218

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0218) – 1
= 9.09%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8914 + -0.0025 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(4.5871)
= $98.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8914 + -0.0025 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(4.5000)
= $90.02

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8914 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(4.4111)
= $82.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8914 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(4.3240)
= $75.49

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.54% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.