Stock Price Trends

Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR)

Ingersoll Rand Inc., founded in 1859, is an American worldwide provider of industrial equipment, technologies and related parts and services to a broad and diverse customer base through a family of brands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.36% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $75.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.39% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 8.3294

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0401

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.41%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3294 + -0.0022 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.7543)
= $116.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3294 + -0.0022 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.5939)
= $98.88

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3294 + -0.0022 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.3809)
= $79.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3294 + -0.0022 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.2204)
= $68.06

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.36% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $75.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 10.0178

b = -0.0032

s = 0.0349

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 15.00%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0178 + -0.0032 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.6296)
= $102.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0178 + -0.0032 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.4898)
= $89.10

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0178 + -0.0032 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.3361)
= $76.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0178 + -0.0032 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.1964)
= $66.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.39% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.