Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. or ITW is an American company that produces engineered fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems, and specialty products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.40% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $248.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.95 (10.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.49% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ITW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: April 15, 2024
a = 4.8411
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.07%
April 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y507)
= Exp(a + b × X507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8411 + 0.0005 × 734 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.3014)
= $200.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y507)
= Exp(a + b × X507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8411 + 0.0005 × 734 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.0939)
= $163.02
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8411 + 0.0005 × 1,475 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.6614)
= $287.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8411 + 0.0005 × 1,475 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.4538)
= $233.65
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.40% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $248.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.95 (10.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.1634
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0395
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0395) – 1
= 17.14%
November 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1634 + 0.0002 × 953 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.4551)
= $233.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1634 + 0.0002 × 953 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.2970)
= $199.73
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1634 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.6497)
= $284.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1634 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.4915)
= $242.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.49% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.