Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. or ITW is an American company that produces engineered fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems, and specialty products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.90% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $266.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 143.43% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ITW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.3817
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0155
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0155) – 1
= 6.41%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3817 + 0.0012 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.5004)
= $244.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3817 + 0.0012 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.4383)
= $230.05
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3817 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.6342)
= $279.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3817 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.5721)
= $263.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.90% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $266.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.1651
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0154
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 143.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0154) – 1
= 6.37%
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1651 + 0.0024 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.5760)
= $264.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1651 + 0.0024 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.5143)
= $248.22
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1651 + 0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.6467)
= $283.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1651 + 0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.5850)
= $266.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 143.43% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.