Stock Price Trends

Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)

Gates Industrial Corporation plc manufactures and sells engineered power transmission and fluid power solutions worldwide. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.12% per annum.
  • GTES price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $21.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.27% per annum.
  • GTES price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.60 (2.90%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GTES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 9, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 0.7013

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0756

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0756) – 1
= 35.29%

August 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7013 + 0.0013 × 1,358 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.5572)
= $12.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7013 + 0.0013 × 1,358 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.2549)
= $9.53

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7013 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(3.1446)
= $23.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7013 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.8424)
= $17.16

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.12% per annum.
  • GTES price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $21.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.1145

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0589

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0589) – 1
= 26.58%

March 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1145 + 0.0004 × 1,570 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(2.9174)
= $18.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1145 + 0.0004 × 1,570 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(2.6817)
= $14.61

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1145 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(3.0291)
= $20.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1145 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(2.7934)
= $16.34

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.27% per annum.
  • GTES price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.60 (2.90%).