Proto Labs Inc (PRLB)
Proto Labs, Inc., is an e-commerce-driven digital manufacturer of custom prototypes and on-demand production parts around the world. The company is headquartered in Maple Plain, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.53% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.74% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.00 (8.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRLB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.1854
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1241
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1241) – 1
= 64.26%
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y745)
= Exp(a + b × X745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1854 + 0.0002 × 1,080 + 2 × 0.1241)
= Exp(3.6207)
= $37.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y745)
= Exp(a + b × X745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1854 + 0.0002 × 1,080 – 2 × 0.1241)
= Exp(3.1245)
= $22.75
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1854 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1241)
= Exp(3.7501)
= $42.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1854 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1241)
= Exp(3.2538)
= $25.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.53% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 13, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.5990
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0772
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.19%
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + -0.0007 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(3.7767)
= $43.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + -0.0007 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(3.4678)
= $32.07
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(3.5268)
= $34.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(3.2179)
= $24.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.74% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.00 (8.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.