Stock Price Trends

IDEX Corporation (IEX)

IDEX Corporation, based in Northbrook, Illinois, is a publicly traded company engaged in the development, design, and manufacture of fluidics systems and specialty engineered products.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.90% per annum.
  • IEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $223.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $78.44 (54.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.75% per annum.
  • IEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: July 27, 2022

a = 5.6138

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0565

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0565) – 1
= 25.36%

March 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6138 + -0.0004 × 492 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.5250)
= $250.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6138 + -0.0004 × 492 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.2990)
= $200.14

July 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6138 + -0.0004 × 980 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.3249)
= $205.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6138 + -0.0004 × 980 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.0989)
= $163.84

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.90% per annum.
  • IEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $223.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $78.44 (54.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 5.3146

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0703

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0703) – 1
= 32.48%

March 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3146 + 0.0000 × 492 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.4653)
= $236.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3146 + 0.0000 × 492 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.1841)
= $178.41

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3146 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.4928)
= $242.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3146 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.2115)
= $183.37

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.75% per annum.
  • IEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.