Stock Price Trends

Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $83.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.88 (3.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.85% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 5, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.83 (3.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024

a = 3.9623

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0711

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.89%

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9623 + 0.0004 × 903 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4212)
= $83.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9623 + 0.0004 × 903 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.1369)
= $62.61

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9623 + 0.0004 × 1,711 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.7046)
= $110.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9623 + 0.0004 × 1,711 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4203)
= $83.12

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $83.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.88 (3.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025

a = 7.9317

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0574

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.79%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9317 + -0.0020 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.7844)
= $119.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9317 + -0.0020 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.5550)
= $95.10

January 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9317 + -0.0020 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.4861)
= $88.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9317 + -0.0020 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.2566)
= $70.57

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.85% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 5, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.83 (3.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.