Stock Price Trends

Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.33% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $86.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.18% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024

a = 3.9190

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0701

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0701) – 1
= 32.36%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,028 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.4363)
= $84.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,028 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.1559)
= $63.81

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.7261)
= $112.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.4457)
= $85.26

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.33% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $86.31 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 17.1853

b = -0.0070

s = 0.0224

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0070) – 1
= -92.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.36%

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.7518)
= $115.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.6623)
= $105.88

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.4794)
= $88.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.3900)
= $80.64

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.18% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.