Stock Price Trends

Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $76.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.43 (11.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.77% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024

a = 3.9715

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0711

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.89%

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 877 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4212)
= $83.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 877 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.1369)
= $62.61

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.7046)
= $110.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4203)
= $83.12

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $76.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.43 (11.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 6.4992

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0612

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0612) – 1
= 27.72%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.7450)
= $115.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.5004)
= $90.05

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.4852)
= $88.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.2405)
= $69.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.77% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.