Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $76.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.43 (11.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.77% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 3.9715
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0711
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.89%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 877 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4212)
= $83.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 877 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.1369)
= $62.61
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.7046)
= $110.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9715 + 0.0004 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4203)
= $83.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $76.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.43 (11.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.4992
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0612
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0612) – 1
= 27.72%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.7450)
= $115.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.5004)
= $90.05
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.4852)
= $88.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4992 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.2405)
= $69.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.77% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.