Stock Price Trends

Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.05% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $71.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.13 (10.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.59% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 28, 2022
End date: March 11, 2025

a = 4.1512

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0826

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0826) – 1
= 39.17%

July 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1512 + 0.0002 × 752 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.4759)
= $87.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1512 + 0.0002 × 752 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.1453)
= $63.14

March 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1512 + 0.0002 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.6788)
= $107.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1512 + 0.0002 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.3482)
= $77.34

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.05% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $71.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.13 (10.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025

a = 6.9075

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0881

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0881) – 1
= 42.22%

July 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9075 + -0.0015 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.8259)
= $124.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9075 + -0.0015 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.4737)
= $87.68

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9075 + -0.0015 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.3166)
= $74.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9075 + -0.0015 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(3.9643)
= $52.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.59% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.