Stock Price Trends

Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $76.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.39 (11.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.96% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024

a = 3.9722

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0711

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.89%

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9722 + 0.0004 × 875 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4212)
= $83.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9722 + 0.0004 × 875 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.1369)
= $62.61

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9722 + 0.0004 × 1,683 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.7046)
= $110.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9722 + 0.0004 × 1,683 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.4203)
= $83.12

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.66% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $76.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.39 (11.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 6.5098

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0608

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0608) – 1
= 27.54%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5098 + -0.0012 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.7449)
= $115.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5098 + -0.0012 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.5016)
= $90.16

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5098 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.4810)
= $88.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5098 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.2377)
= $69.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.96% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.