Stock Price Trends

Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.53% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $61.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.30 (28.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.89% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 22, 2022
End date: December 3, 2024

a = 4.0135

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0730

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0730) – 1
= 33.93%

August 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0135 + 0.0003 × 847 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(4.4335)
= $84.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0135 + 0.0003 × 847 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(4.1413)
= $62.89

December 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0135 + 0.0003 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(4.7032)
= $110.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0135 + 0.0003 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(4.4110)
= $82.35

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.53% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $61.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.30 (28.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.3155

b = -0.0017

s = 0.0878

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.07%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3155 + -0.0017 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.8376)
= $126.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3155 + -0.0017 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.4865)
= $88.81

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3155 + -0.0017 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.4237)
= $83.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3155 + -0.0017 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.0726)
= $58.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.89% per annum.
  • SWK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.