Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.33% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $86.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.18% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 3.9190
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0701
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0701) – 1
= 32.36%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,028 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.4363)
= $84.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,028 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.1559)
= $63.81
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.7261)
= $112.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9190 + 0.0004 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(4.4457)
= $85.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.33% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $86.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 17.1853
b = -0.0070
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0070) – 1
= -92.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.36%
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.7518)
= $115.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.6623)
= $105.88
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.4794)
= $88.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1853 + -0.0070 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.3900)
= $80.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.18% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.