Stock Price Trends

Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM)

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc., a medical device company, designs, develops, and markets various products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 168.43% per annum.
  • TNDM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.45 (35.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.78% per annum.
  • TNDM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.20 (0.70%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TNDM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: September 30, 2024

a = -0.8585

b = 0.0027

s = 0.1564

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 168.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1564) – 1
= 86.91%

September 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8585 + 0.0027 × 1,387 + 2 × 0.1564)
= Exp(3.2065)
= $24.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8585 + 0.0027 × 1,387 – 2 × 0.1564)
= Exp(2.5810)
= $13.21

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8585 + 0.0027 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.1564)
= Exp(4.2588)
= $70.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8585 + 0.0027 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.1564)
= Exp(3.6334)
= $37.84

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 168.43% per annum.
  • TNDM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.45 (35.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 6.9733

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0966

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0966) – 1
= 47.15%

May 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9733 + -0.0019 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.0966)
= Exp(4.0982)
= $60.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9733 + -0.0019 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.0966)
= Exp(3.7120)
= $40.93

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9733 + -0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0966)
= Exp(3.7208)
= $41.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9733 + -0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0966)
= Exp(3.3346)
= $28.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.78% per annum.
  • TNDM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.20 (0.70%).