Stock Price Trends

UFP Technologies Inc (UFPT)

UFP Technologies, Inc. designs and converts foams, films and plastic materials for the medical, automotive, consumer, electronic, industrial, aerospace and defense markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Newburyport, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.42% per annum.
  • UFPT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $201.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.76% per annum.
  • UFPT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UFPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 8.4484

b = -0.0017

s = 0.0791

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.20%

July 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4484 + -0.0017 × 1,566 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(6.0090)
= $407.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4484 + -0.0017 × 1,566 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(5.6927)
= $296.70

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4484 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(5.5794)
= $264.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4484 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(5.2631)
= $193.08

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.42% per annum.
  • UFPT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $201.71 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 16.2011

b = -0.0060

s = 0.0377

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -88.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0377) – 1
= 16.29%

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2011 + -0.0060 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(5.7250)
= $306.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2011 + -0.0060 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(5.5741)
= $263.51

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2011 + -0.0060 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(5.3477)
= $210.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2011 + -0.0060 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(5.1968)
= $180.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.76% per annum.
  • UFPT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.