Stock Price Trends

Mesa Laboratories Inc (MLAB)

Mesa Laboratories, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets quality control instruments and disposable products in the United States, Europe, Asia, North America, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.47% per annum.
  • MLAB price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $112.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.69 (4.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.14% per annum.
  • MLAB price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MLAB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 28, 2023
End date: March 27, 2025

a = 3.5684

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0872

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0872) – 1
= 41.75%

September 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5684 + 0.0007 × 1,255 + 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(4.6835)
= $108.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5684 + 0.0007 × 1,255 – 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(4.3346)
= $76.29

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5684 + 0.0007 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(5.0927)
= $162.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5684 + 0.0007 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(4.7438)
= $114.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.47% per annum.
  • MLAB price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $112.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.69 (4.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 7, 2025
End date: April 17, 2025

a = 13.5782

b = -0.0049

s = 0.0343

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0049) – 1
= -83.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.69%

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5782 + -0.0049 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.0958)
= $163.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5782 + -0.0049 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(4.9587)
= $142.41

April 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5782 + -0.0049 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(4.7592)
= $116.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5782 + -0.0049 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(4.6221)
= $101.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.14% per annum.
  • MLAB price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.