Stock Price Trends

Teleflex Incorporated (TFX)

Teleflex Incorporated, headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, is an American provider of specialty medical devices for a range of procedures in critical care and surgery.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.62% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $134.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.94 (5.58%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.99% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TFX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: February 18, 2025

a = 9.5891

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0493

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0493) – 1
= 21.80%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5891 + -0.0025 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(5.6407)
= $281.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5891 + -0.0025 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(5.4435)
= $231.25

February 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5891 + -0.0025 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(5.1911)
= $179.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5891 + -0.0025 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(4.9938)
= $147.50

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.62% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $134.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.94 (5.58%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 19, 2025
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 50.4372

b = -0.0250

s = 0.0825

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0250) – 1
= -99.99%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0825) – 1
= 39.09%

February 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(50.4372 + -0.0250 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.3888)
= $218.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(50.4372 + -0.0250 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.0588)
= $157.41

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(50.4372 + -0.0250 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.0393)
= $154.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(50.4372 + -0.0250 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.7093)
= $110.98

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.99% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.