Stock Price Trends

Globus Medical (GMED)

Globus Medical, Inc., a medical device company, develops and markets healthcare solutions for patients with musculoskeletal disorders. The company is headquartered in Audubon, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.43% per annum.
  • GMED price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $83.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.74% per annum.
  • GMED price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.21 (1.46%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GMED price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 24, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.7659

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0629

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.62%

October 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7659 + 0.0014 × 1,433 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.9386)
= $51.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7659 + 0.0014 × 1,433 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.6869)
= $39.92

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7659 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.4999)
= $90.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7659 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.2482)
= $69.98

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.43% per annum.
  • GMED price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $83.59 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 9, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.7399

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0349

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.96%

May 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7399 + 0.0009 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.2403)
= $69.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7399 + 0.0009 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.1009)
= $60.40

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7399 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.4114)
= $82.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7399 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.2720)
= $71.66

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.74% per annum.
  • GMED price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.21 (1.46%).