Stock Price Trends

Embecta Corp (EMBC)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 87.16% per annum.
  • EMBC price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $11.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.93% per annum.
  • EMBC price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMBC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 20, 2024
End date: April 17, 2025

a = 8.6672

b = -0.0056

s = 0.0542

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -87.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.21%

December 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y684)
= Exp(a + b × X684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6672 + -0.0056 × 994 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.1859)
= $24.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y684)
= Exp(a + b × X684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6672 + -0.0056 × 994 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.9691)
= $19.47

April 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y763)
= Exp(a + b × X763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6672 + -0.0056 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.5223)
= $12.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y763)
= Exp(a + b × X763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6672 + -0.0056 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.3055)
= $10.03

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 87.16% per annum.
  • EMBC price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $11.34 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 20, 2025
End date: April 17, 2025

a = 5.6635

b = -0.0029

s = 0.0341

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -64.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.63%

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6635 + -0.0029 × 1,056 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(2.7005)
= $14.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6635 + -0.0029 × 1,056 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(2.5640)
= $12.99

April 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y763)
= Exp(a + b × X763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6635 + -0.0029 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(2.5397)
= $12.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y763)
= Exp(a + b × X763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6635 + -0.0029 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(2.4032)
= $11.06

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.93% per annum.
  • EMBC price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.