Embecta Corp (EMBC)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.17% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $19.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.28% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMBC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 0.9289
b = 0.0020
s = 0.1079
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1079) – 1
= 53.97%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y501)
= Exp(a + b × X501 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9289 + 0.0020 × 732 + 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(2.5860)
= $13.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y501)
= Exp(a + b × X501 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9289 + 0.0020 × 732 – 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(2.1544)
= $8.62
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9289 + 0.0020 × 1,032 + 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(3.1767)
= $23.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9289 + 0.0020 × 1,032 – 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(2.7451)
= $15.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.17% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $19.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 27, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.8641
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0279
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.78%
November 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8641 + -0.0009 × 971 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.0722)
= $21.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8641 + -0.0009 × 971 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(2.9608)
= $19.31
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8641 + -0.0009 × 1,032 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.0190)
= $20.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8641 + -0.0009 × 1,032 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(2.9076)
= $18.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.28% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.