Stock Price Trends

Penumbra Inc (PEN)

Penumbra, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Alameda, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.30% per annum.
  • PEN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $272.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 723.24% per annum.
  • PEN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 18, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 1.9481

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0513

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0513) – 1
= 22.75%

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9481 + 0.0020 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(5.2309)
= $186.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9481 + 0.0020 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(5.0259)
= $152.30

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9481 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(5.6733)
= $290.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9481 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(5.4683)
= $237.05

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.30% per annum.
  • PEN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $272.73 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 30, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = -4.9193

b = 0.0058

s = 0.0190

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0058) – 1
= 723.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1
= 7.91%

December 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9193 + 0.0058 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.5032)
= $245.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9193 + 0.0058 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.4271)
= $227.49

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9193 + 0.0058 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.6649)
= $288.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.9193 + 0.0058 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.5888)
= $267.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 723.24% per annum.
  • PEN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.