Artivion Inc (AORT)
Artivion Inc. manufactures, processes and distributes implantable human tissues and medical devices worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.85% per annum.
- AORT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $24.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.59 (9.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.32% per annum.
- AORT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AORT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2022
End date: February 24, 2025
a = 1.2852
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0848
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0848) – 1
= 40.41%
October 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2852 + 0.0012 × 918 + 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(2.5548)
= $12.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2852 + 0.0012 × 918 – 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(2.2154)
= $9.17
February 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2852 + 0.0012 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(3.5996)
= $36.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2852 + 0.0012 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(3.2602)
= $26.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.85% per annum.
- AORT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $24.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.59 (9.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 12.0824
b = -0.0049
s = 0.0449
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0049) – 1
= -83.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.67%
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0824 + -0.0049 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(3.5817)
= $35.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0824 + -0.0049 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(3.4021)
= $30.03
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0824 + -0.0049 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(3.2334)
= $25.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0824 + -0.0049 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(3.0538)
= $21.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.32% per annum.
- AORT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.