Stock Price Trends

Adapthealth Corp (AHCO)

AdaptHealth Corp. The company is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.02% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $7.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.04 (11.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.76% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (9.25%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: April 4, 2025

a = 1.3795

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1176

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1176) – 1
= 60.09%

September 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,247 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.3226)
= $10.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,247 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(1.8520)
= $6.37

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.6416)
= $14.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.1710)
= $8.77

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.02% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $7.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.04 (11.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: April 17, 2025

a = 2.5857

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0697

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0697) – 1
= 32.17%

February 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.4963)
= $12.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.2174)
= $9.18

April 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.4288)
= $11.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.1499)
= $8.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.76% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (9.25%).