Adapthealth Corp (AHCO)
AdaptHealth Corp. The company is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.61% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $10.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.67% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 1.0842
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1157
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1157) – 1
= 58.85%
September 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0842 + 0.0007 × 1,332 + 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(2.2902)
= $9.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0842 + 0.0007 × 1,332 – 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(1.8275)
= $6.22
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0842 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(2.6503)
= $14.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0842 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(2.1875)
= $8.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.61% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $10.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 2.4562
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0608
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0608) – 1
= 27.51%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4562 + -0.0001 × 1,492 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(2.4671)
= $11.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4562 + -0.0001 × 1,492 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(2.2241)
= $9.24
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4562 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(2.4425)
= $11.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4562 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(2.1994)
= $9.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.67% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.