Adapthealth Corp (AHCO)
AdaptHealth Corp. The company is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.02% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $7.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.04 (11.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.76% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (9.25%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: April 4, 2025
a = 1.3795
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1176
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1176) – 1
= 60.09%
September 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,247 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.3226)
= $10.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,247 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(1.8520)
= $6.37
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.6416)
= $14.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3795 + 0.0006 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.1710)
= $8.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.02% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $7.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.04 (11.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: April 17, 2025
a = 2.5857
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0697
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0697) – 1
= 32.17%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.4963)
= $12.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.2174)
= $9.18
April 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.4288)
= $11.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5857 + -0.0002 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.1499)
= $8.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.76% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of April 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (9.25%).