Stock Price Trends

TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, is dedicated to transforming organ transplant therapy for patients with end-stage organ failure in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.54% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was $67.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.80 (1.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.42% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 8, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 17.6678

b = -0.0075

s = 0.1168

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0075) – 1
= -93.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1168) – 1
= 59.54%

August 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6678 + -0.0075 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(5.4919)
= $242.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6678 + -0.0075 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(5.0248)
= $152.15

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6678 + -0.0075 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(4.2007)
= $66.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6678 + -0.0075 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(3.7336)
= $41.83

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.54% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was $67.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.80 (1.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 3, 2024
End date: January 28, 2025

a = 6.9746

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0722

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0722) – 1
= 33.50%

December 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9746 + -0.0016 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(4.3571)
= $78.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9746 + -0.0016 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(4.0682)
= $58.45

January 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9746 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(4.2697)
= $71.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9746 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(3.9808)
= $53.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.42% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.