Stock Price Trends

TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, is dedicated to transforming organ transplant therapy for patients with end-stage organ failure in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.87% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $88.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.74 (5.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.43% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of April 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.62 (1.87%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: April 9, 2025

a = 10.2044

b = -0.0034

s = 0.1889

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -70.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1889) – 1
= 112.87%

May 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,024)
= Exp(a + b × X1,024 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2044 + -0.0034 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.1889)
= Exp(5.5637)
= $260.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,024)
= Exp(a + b × X1,024 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2044 + -0.0034 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.1889)
= Exp(4.8082)
= $122.51

April 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2044 + -0.0034 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.1889)
= Exp(4.4519)
= $85.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2044 + -0.0034 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.1889)
= Exp(3.6964)
= $40.30

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.87% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $88.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.74 (5.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 5, 2024
End date: April 17, 2025

a = 2.0146

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0749

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0749) – 1
= 34.95%

December 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0146 + 0.0013 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.2938)
= $73.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0146 + 0.0013 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.9941)
= $54.28

April 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0146 + 0.0013 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.4615)
= $86.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0146 + 0.0013 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.1618)
= $64.19

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.43% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of April 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.62 (1.87%).