Medtronic PLC (MDT)
Medtronic plc is an American-Irish registered medical device company that primarily operates in the United States. Medtronic has an operational and executive headquarters in Fridley, Minnesota in the US.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.47% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $84.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.27% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.67 (3.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.1729
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0546
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0546) – 1
= 24.40%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1729 + 0.0001 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.4332)
= $84.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1729 + 0.0001 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.2148)
= $67.68
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1729 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.5487)
= $94.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1729 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.3303)
= $75.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.47% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $84.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4898
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.57%
June 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4898 + 0.0011 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.4133)
= $82.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4898 + 0.0011 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.2860)
= $72.68
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4898 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.5907)
= $98.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4898 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.4634)
= $86.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.27% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.67 (3.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.