Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of diseases of the central nervous system in the United States. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.61% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $35.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.23 (13.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.71% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SUPN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 12, 2022
End date: August 6, 2024
a = 4.0435
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0951
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0951) – 1
= 46.26%
August 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0435 + -0.0004 × 996 + 2 × 0.0951)
= Exp(3.8026)
= $44.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0435 + -0.0004 × 996 – 2 × 0.0951)
= Exp(3.4224)
= $30.64
August 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0435 + -0.0004 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0951)
= Exp(3.4889)
= $32.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0435 + -0.0004 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0951)
= Exp(3.1087)
= $22.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.61% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $35.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.23 (13.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.4463
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0778
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0778) – 1
= 36.53%
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4463 + 0.0006 × 1,398 + 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(3.4169)
= $30.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4463 + 0.0006 × 1,398 – 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(3.1056)
= $22.32
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4463 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(3.6664)
= $39.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4463 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(3.3551)
= $28.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.71% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.