Innoviva Inc (INVA)
Innoviva, Inc. is dedicated to the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products. The company is headquartered in Burlingame, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.26% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $19.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.53% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.41 (2.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.3871
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.89%
February 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3871 + 0.0009 × 1,191 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.5317)
= $12.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3871 + 0.0009 × 1,191 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.3094)
= $10.07
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3871 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.0827)
= $21.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3871 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.8604)
= $17.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.26% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $19.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.3633
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 70.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.38%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3633 + 0.0015 × 1,573 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(2.7263)
= $15.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3633 + 0.0015 × 1,573 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(2.6007)
= $13.47
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3633 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(3.0962)
= $22.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3633 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(2.9706)
= $19.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.53% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.41 (2.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.